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What are the team power ratings on this website and how are they used? What do all the columns mean? One thing that we want to do better with this website is use our numbers and information. I have been tweaking a formula to rank teams since I was in College, and I have since updated the formula. Here is a rundown on how to understand the Team Power Ratings.
What the Team Power Ratings are and are not.
First of all, we have to understand how to use this information. What is our end goal? Some computer rankings tell you how good a team is. They try to tell you about how the season has gone so far, but these power ratings try to to tell you how good a team should be going forward. It takes the information and tries to give you a fair and balanced picture of what should be happening.
How does it do it?
I believe that not all games are created equal. I think we all believe that, but I actually invert what the Longo does. The longo rating says that if you beat a NAIA or NCAA DIII school that should count for more. Even though I think that might be true, I believe that those games have to many variables to get an accurate picture of what actually happened in that game:
I think that the one game that is actually measurable against all other teams is NCCAA DII teams. That is why I weight those games over everything else. I want to know how well that team played against other schools that all actually play each other.
The 4 Factors:
Strength of Schedule – The pythag of the opponents of the team being evaluated.
Opponent Strength of Schedule – The combined pythag of the opponents opponents.
Possessions - an Estimated number of possessions per game. This helps to find defensive and offensive efficiencies.
I like this measure of a team, because over the years I have seen that a team’s record means nothing. I want to know goals scored vs. goals allowed. That is a way better measure of a team’s success. Using that measure, we find a winning percentage.
O Adjusted and D Adjusted
How many goals/points/runs a team scores per 100 shots on goal (soccer)/possessions (basketball)/hits per game (baseball). I like this measure because it takes into account quality over quantity. I am not concerned with quantity, I want to know the quality of your team.
Because we use the Pythagorean Expectation to get a better picture of a team’s winning percentage, we can use this to tell us how lucky a team seems to be. We compare the Pythag to the actually winning percentage, and that can tell us that a team is over performing or under performing.
In no way are these rankings perfect, but the goal is to continue with the process of finding a better way to evaluate teams. I simply am not sold on Longo, and I believe that this can tell us who is good and who is not. It also provides us with the Game Predictor. I hope you enjoy the rankings.