The men’s and women’s basketball national tournaments wrapped up for the day about an hour ago, and things have been pretty crazy. Here is a rundown of a few links you need to know about:
- Women’s National Tournament (game-by-game predictions)
- Men’s National Tournament (game-by-game predictions)
- Women’s Team Ratings
- Men’s Team Ratings
The computer has done a decent job of predicting games. The computer has gotten 7 right and 5 wrong. Here are some quick summaries of the games:
Men’s Basketball:
- #1 Ohio Christian flexed their muscles over Manhattan. The computer thought Ohio was going to win, and it came to be. Manhattan just didn’t have enough athletes to keep up in this game.
- #2 Northland was upset by Arlington Baptist. The computer has never been sold on Northland, and the predictor had Arlington winning this game. The computer got this one right. Northland is better than the way they played, but Arlington is just a really active team that caused a lot of problems.
- #3 North Central University was upset by the surprise Ozark Christian. The computer has never really loved North Central this year, but it has thought even less of Ozark. Ozark is just on a magical run that has made things very interesting!
- #5 Florida Christian upset #4 Trinity Baptist in the evening game. The computer predicted this game, and really thinks highly of the Suns. In fact the team ratings has the Suns as the #1 overall team, despite Ohio being the heavy favorite.
Women’s Basketball:
- #1 Maranatha crushed North Central to start things off for the women’s tournament. Maranatha played so well that the team ratings jumped them to the #1 overall team in the country.
- #2 Manhattan beat Arlington, but the computer was oddly predicting the opposite. For whatever reason the computer loves the southwest region. Manhattan is a solid team, and looks like a threat.
- #3 Kentucky Christian University took care of business against Trinity Bible. Kentucky dropped from their #1 perch in the team ratings, but KCU is always a threat of repeating.
- #4 Trinity Baptist College took out Ohio Christian University. TBC is the most underrated team in the country; by my computer and the national tournament seeding. Watch out.
Here are the updated win expectancies for the men’s and women’s tournament.
Men’s Basketball:
| Odds | ||
| Arlington Baptist College | 34.89% | |
| Florida Christian College | 22.87% | |
| Ohio Christian University | 21.12% | |
| Ozark Christian College | 21.12% |
- Arlington Baptist continues to be the favorite. Not necessarily because of “quality” but they continue to have an easier road than the other teams.
- I can not tell you how important Florida Christian’s win over TBC was for their national tournament chances, but I’m telling you, the Ohio Christian vs. Florida Christian game is the most important game of the national tournament.
Women’s Basketball:
| Odds | ||
| Maranatha Baptist Bible College | 90.18% | |
| Kentucky Christian University | 4.85% | |
| Trinity Baptist College | 2.49% | |
| Manhattan Christian College | 2.49% |
- Maranatha.
It is interesting to me that MCC has now beat the computer’s #3 team by 30 and late in the season beat their number 5 team by 40 and are still only given a 2% chance to win the tournament. I haven’t seen Maranatha play. Are they really that good that a team like Manhattan virtually has no chance…according to the computers?
Good question. It really has more to do with the fact that Manhattan has to play Kentucky and (most probably Maranatha). That is a significantly harder road than Maranatha’s, they get the luxury of not playing either MCC or KCU. In a head to head match up, KCU, MBBC, and MCC are actually very similar. Hope that helps.
Does the computer not take into effect that Ozark has beaten Arlington both times they played this year?
Good point. Yes it does, but this isn’t about Arlington vs. Ozark… it’s about Arlington vs. all the other teams (Or Ozark vs. all the other teams), and the odds of them beating those teams. I think most people would assume Arlington is still the better team (results wise), but it is bizarre that Ozark has beaten them twice this season. Ozark is a strange team to pin down. I think that is why you see the win expectancies being so close (as opposed to the women’s tournament).
I just want to say that I think you have done a great job with these rankings and stuff. It hasn’t been perfect, but your computer has actually been pretty insightful all year long.