Men’s Basketball: Day 2 National Tournament Win Expectancy (Error Fixed)

After a wild day one of the tournament, we move on to the updated win expectancies. Before we do that, I wanted to write-up some notes on the games.

  • Arlington Baptist showed well as we discussed on the site earlier this week. Grace University was just a little overmatched in this game. Arlington is proving to be under-seeded. The computer got this one right. 
  • Valley Forge was probably the shock of the tournament. Ozark is a decent team, the computer has them as a mid level team, but Valley Forge was supposed to be very solid. They went ice-cold from the three, and allowed Ozark to dominate the glass. VFCC just got beat. The computer got this wrong.
  • Manhattan Christian had a great first half to overwhelm Multnomah. Multnomah was a 2 point favorite in this one, and therefore the computer got this one wrong. Manhattan has been ranked low by the rankings all year-long, and I am curious to see how they fare going forward.
  • Florida Christian avenged a loss in the national tournament from last year to Central Bible College. Florida looks athletic and streaky, I don’t know if they can put together enough wins in a row to win the national tournament, but it’s not going to be because they don’t have enough talent. The computer got this one right.

Win Expectancy: If played 100 times, how many times a team won the national title. 

(Updated… I made an error! Sorry!)

    Odds
  Arlington Baptist College 27.42%
  Ohio Christian University 23.64%
  North Central University 16.97%
  Northland International University 11.70%
  Ozark Christian College 11.70%
  Florida Christian College 3.72%
  Trinity Baptist College 2.42%
  Manhattan Christian College 2.42%

 

Arlington has now moved up as the favorite to win the national title. That sounds crazy, but they are a solid team with a tough road, but not as tough as some of the other teams in this tournament. 

  • Ohio Christian is not far behind Arlington. They are the team to beat in this tournament, but potentially playing Florida Christian in the Final Four makes things difficult.
  • Florida Christian had a big win over the home team today, but their road is really difficult. The odds of them winning is still pretty slim.

About Cole McGee

Cole is a full time pastor in Olathe, KS. He is a graduate from Manhattan Christian College, and has a part time hobby in all things statistics. You can reach Cole with your "love" mail at cole@ccsnonline.com.