After a wild day one of the tournament, we move on to the updated win expectancies. Before we do that, I wanted to write-up some notes on the games.
- Arlington Baptist showed well as we discussed on the site earlier this week. Grace University was just a little overmatched in this game. Arlington is proving to be under-seeded. The computer got this one right.
- Valley Forge was probably the shock of the tournament. Ozark is a decent team, the computer has them as a mid level team, but Valley Forge was supposed to be very solid. They went ice-cold from the three, and allowed Ozark to dominate the glass. VFCC just got beat. The computer got this wrong.
- Manhattan Christian had a great first half to overwhelm Multnomah. Multnomah was a 2 point favorite in this one, and therefore the computer got this one wrong. Manhattan has been ranked low by the rankings all year-long, and I am curious to see how they fare going forward.
- Florida Christian avenged a loss in the national tournament from last year to Central Bible College. Florida looks athletic and streaky, I don’t know if they can put together enough wins in a row to win the national tournament, but it’s not going to be because they don’t have enough talent. The computer got this one right.
Win Expectancy: If played 100 times, how many times a team won the national title.
(Updated… I made an error! Sorry!)
|Arlington Baptist College||27.42%|
|Ohio Christian University||23.64%|
|North Central University||16.97%|
|Northland International University||11.70%|
|Ozark Christian College||11.70%|
|Florida Christian College||3.72%|
|Trinity Baptist College||2.42%|
|Manhattan Christian College||2.42%|
Arlington has now moved up as the favorite to win the national title. That sounds crazy, but they are a solid team with a tough road, but not as tough as some of the other teams in this tournament.
- Ohio Christian is not far behind Arlington. They are the team to beat in this tournament, but potentially playing Florida Christian in the Final Four makes things difficult.
- Florida Christian had a big win over the home team today, but their road is really difficult. The odds of them winning is still pretty slim.