I have used this formula in the past to discover the win expectancy a team has of winning the national championship. Every time I do this, I am reminded of how important seeding is. This formula takes into account the team’s rating, opponents rating, possible match ups, and home court advantage. Here are the odds, and a few notes to read over:
(UPDATED WIN EXP% BELOW)
Ohio Christian University is the favorite to win this year’s tournament, with a 14% chance of a title. That is a really high mark, but it is not exactly light-years above a few other teams. Even though Ohio is everyone’s favorite, I don’t think it is a forgone conclusion that they win it.
- Arlington Baptist College is the 7 seed, but the computer believes they have the easiest road to making the final four. The computer sees Grace University and Northland as two overrated teams that could be upset candidates. That puts Arlington as a dark horse candidate… I know call me crazy.
- Northland International is also a favorite. The Pioneers missed out on having to play Florida Christian, Ohio, and Valley Forge until the final four. Not a bad path for the national tournament newcomers.
- Florida Christian is (edit) a great team, but being seeded where they are… it doesn’t look like it will be an easy road for the Suns. They start the tournament against a home team CBC, and don’t catch any breaks the rest of the way. Is Florida capable of putting together 4 wins against the best teams in the tournament… phew… I don’t know.