I have used this formula in the past to discover the win expectancy a team has of winning the national championship. Every time I do this, I am reminded of how important seeding is. This formula takes into account the team’s rating, opponents rating, possible match ups, and home court advantage. Here are the odds, and a few notes to read over:
(UPDATED WIN EXP% BELOW)
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Ohio Christian University is the favorite to win this year’s tournament, with a 14% chance of a title. That is a really high mark, but it is not exactly light-years above a few other teams. Even though Ohio is everyone’s favorite, I don’t think it is a forgone conclusion that they win it.
- Arlington Baptist College is the 7 seed, but the computer believes they have the easiest road to making the final four. The computer sees Grace University and Northland as two overrated teams that could be upset candidates. That puts Arlington as a dark horse candidate… I know call me crazy.
- Northland International is also a favorite. The Pioneers missed out on having to play Florida Christian, Ohio, and Valley Forge until the final four. Not a bad path for the national tournament newcomers.
- Florida Christian is (edit) a great team, but being seeded where they are… it doesn’t look like it will be an easy road for the Suns. They start the tournament against a home team CBC, and don’t catch any breaks the rest of the way. Is Florida capable of putting together 4 wins against the best teams in the tournament… phew… I don’t know.
Can you give us an idea of the computer’s track record over the last two or three national tournaments?
I have not tracked this kind of prediction from the computer. I have tracked individual national tournament game predictions though. Over the last 3 years, it has been about 67% accurate (Not scores, just final results.)
I think trinity baptist has the best athletes their best player was a leading score at a NCAA div 1 school and had to transfer due to academic reasons!
What team do you believe could be the biggest surprise of the tournament?
I’ll have to go with Arlington. You remember Southwestern Christian getting to the final four as a 7 seed a few years back…right?
Haha that I do. How do you think NCU will match up against Valley Forge if that is who they play in the 2nd round?
I honestly don’t know much about NCU. I don’t think the computer does either. They went from low 20′s to top 15 in a day. That tells me the computer doesn’t really know where to put them yet. I think they are the biggest unknown right now.
I like VFCC in this tournament, they have had their struggles, but the computer still thinks they are a top team. I think VFCC wins, but NCU truly is a wildcard… as they progress in this tournament, you will see them jump all over the rankings each night.
I hope a CBC fan makes a sign that says “.06% chance a winning it all? So you’re telling me there is a chance!!”
There are some really cool story lines in this year’s tournament! Coaches on their farewell tour, teams disbursing after this season, new teams entering the fold on the National Stage….should be a really cool Tournament! Northland is a balanced team, has an excellent floor general as a point guard, and have athletes on the wings that have some experience. VFCC has the experience and athletic abiluty to overwhelm teams and really get out on the run and score in bunches…not to mention they have Coach Mack…one of the most respected coaches in this league. I also was able to see ohio this year, and thought they have some definite pieces that could take them a long way. They have experienced players who I am guessing are extremely hungry for this moment. In my mind I have 6 teams that could make enough noise and take the entire thing. lots of parody!
I would like to point out that if Grace University can get past Arlington Grace and Northland played earlier this year with Northland winning by one, and Spencer Plank was fouled on Grace’s last possession and should have gone to the free throw line to shoot 2. So this should be a great rematch if it happens/
I would like to point out that one of NIU’s best players (Josh Conover) was 1000 miles away at the soccer national tournament during this game. Games will be played and the team playing the best right now will be champ. Should be fun!
didn’t know that fair enough, Grace was also missing a starter at that time, but teams are totally different at this time of year. It should be fun
Arlington definitely is the sleeper team and most teams are not familiar with them…Vfcc has to be thinking this is the year to beat Grace but to bad they didn’t make it even tho they finally got that chip off their back by beating them in season..It’s a down year for them
VFCC…. Ouch
What happened….? I thought Ozark was an above average team, but I didn’t expect that at all.
No clue only seen the final. VFCC wasn’t same team this year as normal.
They were the same team, but something happened late in the season… and they have fallen apart!
Internal issues. Team quit on their coach.
Ozark had 2 big men that refused to lose and made some big time shots in key moments! fun game to watch
Southwest region? More like Southbest Region am I right? Grats to both ABC and OCC.