UPDATE: WOMEN’S Ratings Updated <- Click Here
The first team ratings are released for Men’s Basketball. I wanted to give you a brief breakdown of what these ratings are, and how you should use them. Here are the ratings in their entirety (Click Here), and check out the explanations below:
How to use the ratings:
These ratings are first and foremost predictive. They use the data available, and make predictions on what the end of the season will look like. This is unlike other ratings, because most ratings tell you what the ranking are to date… this is not exactly helpful in my opinion. I want to know… given the current data, what will these teams look like at the end of the year if their current performance plays out throughout the season.
Winning percentage and Pythagorean Expectation:
These ratings are based on Pythagorean expectation. This is a theory created by Bill James that uses points scored and points against to create a winning percentage. I prefer this over a basic win/loss winning percentage because “pythag” has been proven to be more accurate predicting future games.
Offense Adjusted / Defense Adjusted
When you watch college basketball (and any sport for that matter), you know that the most important element to any sport is how efficient a team is. Efficiency is the single most important factor for long-term success in basketball. Obviously in a one game scenario… anything can happen, but in a long-term prediction, efficiency is incredibly important.
For these ratings, efficiency is determined by how many points a team would score and/or allow if given 100 possessions. The only other factor is strength of schedule. This is simply determined by an average of the opponents (and the opponents, opponents) Pythagorean expectation.
Luck
Luck is actually an interesting statistic. This is basically the comparison of a teams winning percentage and their Pythagorean winning percentage. The idea is that the pythag is more accurate, and therefore you can see if a team is over or underperforming based on their point differential.
Conclusions
These numbers will change drastically because there is such little data these ratings are based on, but I do believe that it is still interesting to see how things are working out so far.
Ocu beat 6 4 and 2
Ohio needs to improve their defense. They can’t rely on outscoring everyone. That always ends up biting you. When they start to lock teams down a bit more… they will ROCKET up these ratings.
the most an NAIA team has scored on OCU is 82… that was #24 IUeast… Mt Vernon and #4 IWU were in the 70′s… Grace in the 60′s … Selective lock down?? lol
Your a fricken moron
Emmaus 13th………………????????!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? that team is weaker than your computer. and THAT, my boy, is WEAK.
why read this then if you think they have no cred?
They beat Kuyper in a fast past game where they out scored them, they beat Great Lakes in a fast paced game where they outscored them, they beat #22 NAIA team IU East in a fast pace game where they outscored them, but then they beat national champion #1 Grace 62-60 in slow-paced defensive battle. So it seems to me that they can beat teams outscoring them with lots of possessions and they can beat teams when they slow it down. And It just doesn’t make sense that they can beat Grace on their home court,
Kuyper in their home town and still be ranked behind them. That’s just what it looks like to me.
Ohio Christian that it.
I guess I should have waited a little while longer to release the computer rankings. People have trouble understanding sample size and how that impacts statistics.
Or maybe you should retire. Nobody reads this anymore.
What is also forgotten is some of the better teams are playing very tough schedules against teams that are above their level, so some scores and stats will be a little skewed
Absolutely.
Go away you nerd. Your wife hates you.
I bet Faith Baptist’s defensive efficiency took a hit after Jack Taylor got done with em lol
It did, but in fairness… Grinnell uses so many possessions to score that many points, it actually evens itself out.
They need to do away with nccaa sports, waste of time and money and no talent.