That was a great weekend. I’m always a sucker for soccer nationals. I find myself caring way more than I probably should. I don’t know if it is the soccer, or the characters of the teams, or just the build up of the season, but I love soccer nationals. Having said all of that, Moody and Clearwater are our national champions for men’s and women’s soccer. Here is a quick look at the national champions, and my thoughts on each:
Men’s Soccer National Champions: Moody Bible Institute
Overview: Moody Bible Institute came into the season as the favorite to repeat. They dominated the coaches poll, and won every NCCAA DII game they played. Is Moody set up for a three-peat? Who knows… but I will say this, I don’t think they were as good as they were last year, and if you take out the beat down of NIU in the regional game (where Northland had a handful of starters out) the computer would think NIU was the better team this year. I would actually agree with the computers. I think for whatever reason Moody has Northland’s number. I don’t actually think they are a “better” team than Northland this year (last year they were). None of that matters, because Moody got the job done. Congrats to them, and I hope we have another great year next year.
Women’s Soccer National Champions: Clearwater Christian College
Overview: Clearwater made their presence known early and often, and crushed the 2012 competition. It’s too bad Lancaster is afraid to play at nationals, because I do think this team would really give Lancaster a great game. I don’t believe anyone saw Clearwater getting this good this fast, but good for these ladies, as they recruited well, put in the work, and really made themselves into a fantastic team.
does your wife know about your affair with your computer’s polls??
niu lost THREE TIMES to moody this year, outscoring them 8-1, SIX TIMES straight, outscoring them 16-3. niu is NOT the better team.
NIU is the better team. Soccer is a funny sport.
I cannot believe you said that…
Believe it.
classy, informative replies, Cole. why even respond?
I use a ton of restraint on this website… to NOT respond to the comments and emails I get. Therefore, when I do respond… 90% of the time I am entering scores into the computer… and I engage for a mental break…. and some humor haha.
1. The math is solid, but the formula is mine because… it’s mine. If you really did any research (reading analytics papers, studied efficiencies, followed any type of saber metrics) you would easily discover the formula I use… it’s nothing ground breaking.
2. Every formula breaks down somewhere
3. People who appreciate the computer use the ratings as a tool to help see what’s happening… not as an end.
4. My ratings are really good. I don’t mind saying that.
5. Most of the time people are nit picking something that is really minuscule and then they throw out the whole ratings because of it.
6. There are a large number of coaches, fans, parents, and players who read this site who appreciate the work that is done to get “another” picture of what is happening. I do my work for them. As for the “haters” if you can’t poke at them occasionally… I have been doing this for long enough to know… they will drive you crazy with dumb comments and emails.
Cole’s weakness, and by extension, the weakness of his polls, is an honest one. It comes from having an intimate knowledge of NIU’s team and a near complete lack of knowledge of Moody’s team. This condition necessarily skews his predictions and leaves him scratching his head when the actual results don’t line up. It causes him to stretch the truth a little in favor of NIU and minimize the truth relative to Moody.
The perfect example of this is contained in his official commentary in this post. Cole glibly dismisses the 5-0 “beat down of NIU in the regional game” as irrelevant because “NIU had a handful of starters out.” This is at the very least stretching the truth. A “handful” generally means 5, or very close to it. Northland started the game with a grand total of 1 out: Mark Romig. Now admittedly, that was a blow to NIU, because he is a fine player. But his absence was self inflicted and it could be argued to be part of his total package anyway-sort of a loose cannon who might sometimes even physically attack a player whose team is already behind by 5 goals.
Now it is also true that NIU lost their excellent forward Jorge Saucedo very early in the game which was another blow. But in reality, he was having no success against Moody’s defense before he went out, and in retrospect, neither did he have any in the national finals. In any event, the grand total of starters out at that point was 2, not very close to a “handful.”
Now, Cole and other NIU fans might include the absence of Jason Lorch in that “handful,” and they would seem to have a point. His loss for the season was particularly devastating to NIU. But to include him in the list of starters out for that game is once again a stretch of the truth, because pretty soon you will start including the recruits you attempted to get to come to NIU, or the children the Patz and the Chatfield families decided against conceiving between 1988-1992!
Couple this sympathy to the NIU cause with ignorance or apathy concerning the Moody team, and you have the recipe for the predictive fiasco that was CCSN 2012.
For instance, a couple salient and season/game changing factors relative to Moody flew completely under Cole’s radar. First, Moody had not one but two critical starters out for the season: Jonathon Marshall, left back/mid, and Kujtin Rushiti, the 2011 National All tournament 1st team forward and the player who scored the Championship winning goal against NIU. Second, Moody went into this year’s championship game ravaged by the flu bug, which weakened many of the starters and greatly affected the game plan. But, as champions do, they quietly adjusted and got the job done.
Now this is no knock against the NIU team. They brought everything they had and presented an admirable performance. Several times they were literally a touch away from tying things up.
And no real knock against Cole. Obviously, he has plenty other things to do besides research Moody’s intricacies.
I’m just explaining how Cole can say NIU was the better team this year, and almost with a straight face! Just like computers, he can only work with the data available. And when that information is woefully inadequate, so are the rankings/predictions.
But having said all that, Cole, please don’t stop doing what you do! This is a very fun activity you provide for all NCCAA fans!
Thanks for a well thought out comment. The only thing I will add is.. ALL my stats show Moody is the better team. (ONLY if I took out the regional game NIU would be better, but you obviously can’t do that)… It’s MY OPINION that NIU was better.
Cole…it might be good for you to define what you mean by the better team. I think Northland had more talent and outplayed Moody at nationals for sure (I think the shot count was 18-8), but does that make them the better team? I played for Northland when we were “better” than other teams, but when you don’t get the job done, in my opinion, you’re not better.
On a side note, does anybody else think it’s garbage that Bob Jones is playing in the NCCAA II next year??? How is that fair? Pretty sure 4,000 students is a ridiculous advantage over everyone else.
their prerogative…. safe to say they are an easy pre-season #1.
Freshman John Brownfield was also out at the start of the game. Within the first 20min of the regional final, Northland had subs at 5 different positions. Anyway, it doesn’t matter.
As noted by gr8t soccer below, NIU dominated Possession, Shots (18-8), Shots on goal, and most of the game. They let up 24 seconds before halftime and Moody made them pay. I think everyone knows NIU outplayed Moody. I think everyone knows this. Many Moody players and coaches included (I heard them say so). Great Tournament!!
@The Record Straight, A very fair and correct assessment, especially concerning Mark Romig, the most influential player that NIU was missing. It was his unethical actions the day before that caused him to get a red card in a game that NIU had already easily won. It is sad to see Christian athletes these days losing their cool on the field. (This is what makes Moody’s players stick out! They are ALL a class act! It is unbelievable to watch them play and how they respond to adversity. They have character.)
The only thing you missed, like “Reply” said, is John Brownfield, who was sick during the regional tournament.
Add this to your stats:
Moody was the ONLY team undefeated and unscored on through the regional AND National tournaments! Goals for/against= Regionals: 11-0, Nationals:11-0 = Postseason: 22 goals for and 0 against!
Translation: Ryan “The Wall” Pattison, 2012 National Tournament Overall MVP stopped EVERY shot and EVERY one-on-one (there were several!) in post season!
He played on a higher level, in a different cosmos. Pause and weep for every forward in the NCCAA D2. It wasn’t fair, the playing field wasn’t level. Even sick with the flu the last two games of Nationals, Ryan was a man among choirboys. The only answer to their pitiful groans, their plaintive prayers, is graduation!
You do know Moody is #1 in my stats?
i would like to see the formula for these polls. The math must have been done by a christian bible college student
You do know the formula has Moody #1.
Cole, I think if you say this about 10 more times, people will start to get it… haha
I do not think “afraid of playing at Nationals” is appropriate in describing Lancaster’s lack of attendance at the NCCAA D2 national tournament. In both 2011 and 2012, they received bids to play in the NCAA D3 tournament which is with all due respect a lot more recognized and competitive tournament that will continue to elevate the womens’ program at LBC
Lancaster Christian College, Atlanta Christian College, Philadelphia Biblical University, Cincinnati Christian University, Southeastern University…. all afraid.
I do not see how an argument can be made against between picking the NCAA D3 and the NCCAA D2 why they wouldnt pick D3 tournament when they faced better competition and why would they compete in a tournament in the NCCAA D2 where they would win? The bar is not to beat other christian colleges. The bar is to be the best soccer program and you only become the best when you consistently play the best.
Sorry… I was kidding man. They aren’t “afraid” to play in the D2… it was a bad joke masking a compliment. I want the best teams to go to the D2 tournament, but I know Lancaster wants to play up. Having said that… I don’t think they would have won this year’s tournament… Clearwater was pretty good.
Its unfortunate that they did not go this season. I was also intrigued by the potential matchup of LBC versus Clearwater. Just one of price we as fans have to pay that we do not get a true national championship game between the two best teams in the NCCAA D2
I don’t know how a team can lose to another team three times in one year and still be better than them. I will say that while NIU enjoyed more time of possession, Moody’s game plan worked: force NIU to work hard and be creative in order to score, something they have had little success doing against Moody recently. The truth is you can have a great all around team, but if you don’t have players who can consistently put the ball in the back of the net like Moody has, you aren’t as good as them and you won’t beat them.
Moody is #1 in my ratings. It’s my opinion that NIU was better.