The game of the week, last week, was a thrill ride. Moody jumped up to a 4-0 lead, but Ohio came roaring back. At first I thought the computer was going to get that one dead wrong, but Ohio made the prediction respectable… thanks guys.
This week we have a rematch of last year’s championship game:
#2 Northland International University vs. #4 Moody Bible Institute
| Week 5 | Score | Win Exp | Excitement Rating |
| Moody Bible Institute | 1 | 47.88% | 18.00 |
| Northland International University | 1 | 52.12% | 18.00 |
| 36.00 |
As you can see, the game is predicted to be a tie, but Northland is the slight (very slight) favorite in the game. But check out the excitement rating. (10 is average).
This should, again, be another amazing match.
What do you think of the prediction? What do you predict the score to be?
I can’t fathom what information you are putting in the computer to get the results for this game. You have Northland #2 and Moody #4 with Northland a slight favorite. But every real line of evidence from actual game results favors Moody:
RESULTS FROM A COMMON OPPONENT. Only one measure currently exists: Northland 4-0 over MBCC and Moody 6-0 over MBCC, both home games for MBCC. Translation: Moody with a 2 goal advantage over NIU.
RESULTS FROM A ONCE REMOVED OPPONENT
1) Trinity University over Northland 2-1 overtime, TIU loses to Trievecca 0-3, Trevecca loses to Moody 5-2. Translation: Moody a 3 point advantage over a team with a 3 point advantage over a team that beat Northland International by one = Moody a 7 goal advantage over NIU in this thread!
2) NIU loses to Stritch 0-4, Trinity Christian College loses to Stritch 1-3, Moody beats TCC 2-1. Translation: TCC a 2 goal advantage over NIU, Moody a one goal advantage over TCC = Moody a 3 goal advantage over NIU.
Admittedly, these numbers cannot be used automatically to predict the NIU/MBI game because there are other factors such as home field advantage, etc., but they are real life numbers from actual on the field results.
Now if you are feeding into the computer factors beyond my comprehension like the CO2 levels at NIU’s field every last Saturday in September or the depression levels among conservative Christians relative to the current presidential race, I admit I’m out of my league:)
Having said all this, the factor with the most bearing on the game is probably the health of Moody’s team. They have been absolutely brutalized from the preseason till now with an epidemic of injuries. So much so that they have not been able to put their 11 best players at 100% on the field at any time. Last weekend’s road trip to Ohio yielded yet more serious injuries which could be characterized as game changing for this weekend. A lesser team would probably punt and try to regroup for the Regionals where the results really count. But don’t count Moody out. Except for the Grace University game, all they do is win, win, win with whoever they have available!
So the computer prediction is probably pretty accurate after all. And, as you noted above, luck seems to be on your side as in the Moody /OCU game. When the score was 4-0 in an absolutely dominating performance, there was no way you get bailed out-yet you were!
Thanks for the work you do-it really makes NCCAA DII fun for the parents!
You have brought up great points, and I agree with you. This early in the season the rankings are chaos! One game and the rankings swing wildly. I can tell you Moody is pretty much locked in thought. The other teams around it will drop, because they are not “locked in” enough with the small amount of games they have played. I usually don’t start making conclusions till about early to mid October.
All I know is the NIU and/or MBI could be having their worst season in years but they will get up for this game.
MBI beat NIU 3 times in about 3 weeks last season with one being in the Regional Championship and one being in the National Championship. My take Northland is looking to reverse this trend.
Moody makes the long trek to NIU this weekend. Northland has the home field advantage this time around.
No injuries for MBI last weekend at OCU or Bluffton though some are still in the process of returning from ongoing injuries, repeated injuries, and/or “other” injuries. Moody is healthier than they have been all season and they’ve been getting it done at home and on the road all season so far.
Both teams want the win today but the only one that will really matter to either team will take place in Watertown, WI on October 27th to be followed up in Kissimmee, FL.
For both MBI & NIU today: play a beautiful game, play for an audience of One, and leave it all on the field. You step onto the pitch at the beginning as Brothers and you will walk off of the pitch as Brothers. Give Glory to God in your actions and your attitude today!
Moody Soccer Dad did his homework. Common opponents works sometimes. The rankings have changed several times this year so calling NIU #2 and Moody #4 doesn’t really matter. Hopefully the refs don’t have to decide on an interception.
Good comment. It’s way too early to draw too many conclusions from the rankings.
Man, I would love to be at this game.
Is Northland streaming this game? Where can I find this if they are?
I am curious who everyone thought was the better team?
Disclaimer: I am a Moody fan and soccer alumna so my bias starts their. That said, there were many points during the game where I felt Northland was the stronger team. They definitely won the possession clock, and spent more time on the attack then Moody did. However, I think the Moody team knows how to find – and finish its chances. The first half definitely belonged to Northland. The second half was more even, with spurts of Moody dominance. I would be interested to see the stats for the game – I felt like neither team really tested the opposing keeper. So as to your questions, who was the better team? Northland looked the better team for much of the game, but Moody defended, countered, and capitalized. Moody always seems to find a way to put the ball in the net… and that keeps them winning. I’m sure the re-match at regionals will have a bit more excitement to it because of the stakes.
Thanks for that analysis. I love soccer for this reason…. even though possession is the most important element to the game of soccer… skilled attacking weapons can equalize a game instantly. That makes it so hard to evaluate and scout teams.
Moody’s outside mids and forwards are amazingly deadly going forward, but I was surprised how many holes their defense has.
Northland has a fantastic midfield, but they need to find that killer instinct, and to beat Moody… their defense will need to be focused for 90 minutes.
I appreciated being able to WATCH this game and make judgements rather than just numbers. Good comments Zach.
The D was what struck me as well… but I think it helped clarify/understand some of their scorelines a bit better.
The fact that you’re asking shows that you’re looking for another chance to express your bias for niu. The scoreline tells the most honest story of the game and now moody beat ocu and niu. They’re number one.
Actually, i don’t there is much of an NIU bias. I think you would find the CCSN guys are Manhattan fans…. No one is saying Moody doesn’t deserve to be #1. They are the defending champs. However, after watching the game they definitely are not unbeatable – and Northland could have won if they finished better. I’m a Moody fan too – and based on quality wins, Moody DOES deserve to be #1. And when it comes to regionals they will get the #1 seed. But having watched the teams at nationals last year, Moody needs to step it up if they want to repeat.
hmmmmm… considering the fact that Moody has beaten Northland FOUR TIMES in the last year, I would logically say that Moody is indeed the BETTER TEAM.