I have said for awhile that I wish that I had access to every stat out there for every team and every player. I don’t. Here is a quick look at what we could do around here if we had access to every stat out there.
Here is an advanced analysis of Valley Forge Christian College.
We are going to be using some terms in this post that you are going to need to know. Here are the terms and a short description of each one:
- ORating – This is a measure of how many points a player or team scores per 100 possessions.
- eFG% - It’s a shooting percentage that factors in the extra points scored on 3-pointers.
- TO% - How many turnovers a team commits per 100 possessions
- ORB% - How often a team rebounds its own missed shots
- FT/FGA - How well a team gets to the free throw line and converts the freebies
- Win Shares – How many wins a player is worth on the floor.
The name of the game is efficiency. I don’t care if you can score 150 points per game, if you do it by shooting 150 shots… I’ll pass. All that really matters in basketball is how many points you can score (or keep the opponent from scoring) with the least amount of possessions possible.
Looking at Valley Forge Christian College, they are the #2 team in the nation according to the power ratings. They are scoring 84 points per 100 possessions, and only giving up 50 points per 100 possessions. This is really impressive considering they are allowing just under league average (74) 70 possessions per game.
When you think of Valley Forge, you think run and gun, but the reality is this team seems to be very clinical at how the approach the game. We know about their versatility and athleticism, but they don’t seem too interested in getting out running, unless they get a turnover on defense, or a long rebound.
When looking a little deeper at their performance this season Valley Forge has really performed better than their record shows this year. They are in of need roster consistency and a common goal (national tournament) and this team could be cutting down nets.
Player Breakdown
Who on Valley Forge Christian College is the most efficient offensive scorer when they are on the floor?
| ## | Player | Pos | Year | ORating | MinPG |
| 2 | Justin Robinson | F | Fr | 151.49 | 18.4 |
| 24 | Andre Howard | F | So | 125.73 | 16.5 |
| 5 | Michael Stum | F | Sr | 122.14 | 28.7 |
| 23 | Latrell Alford | G | Sr | 119.46 | 29.1 |
| 34 | Justin Kinsey | F | Sr | 109.50 | 24.4 |
| 12 | Michael Ayala | G | Fr | 108.86 | 6.1 |
| 4 | Lance Harris | G | So | 99.65 | 21.6 |
| 21 | Jean LeBlanc | G | Fr | 97.05 | 5.4 |
| 3 | Donnell Davis | G | Jr | 89.71 | 25.4 |
| 11 | Steve Sims | G | Jr | 82.76 | 19.6 |
| 10 | Kevin Mack | G | Fr | 79.03 | 14.8 |
| 1 | DJ McFadden | G | Fr | 74.26 | 17.9 |
| 0 | Nick Compton | C | Fr | 59.49 | 5.1 |
* Isaac Ransom was removed from this list due to only playing 4 games.
It might sound weird, but Justin Robinson has proved this season to the most lethal offensive player on the team this year. The question is why he has only played 12 games? There must be something we don’t know about here.
Outside of that Andrew Howard is really a great weapon to have. If you increase his minutes, could he perform at that level? Who knows, but when he is in the game, he is an absolute threat to fill it up.
Michael Stum is their best offensive starter. Stum, who might be the most underrated player in the country, is a beast. He is putting in 28.7 minutes per, and putting up 122.14 points per 100 possessions. Stud production from a stud player.
So the big question is who is the best shooter on Valley Forge?
| ## | Player | Pos | Year | eFG% | MinPG | GP |
| 12 | Michael Ayala | G | Fr | 56% | 6.1 | 23 |
| 24 | Andre Howard | F | So | 55% | 16.5 | 28 |
| 23 | Latrell Alford | G | Sr | 55% | 29.1 | 28 |
| 4 | Lance Harris | G | So | 54% | 21.6 | 28 |
| 34 | Justin Kinsey | F | Sr | 54% | 24.4 | 16 |
| 5 | Michael Stum | F | Sr | 53% | 28.7 | 28 |
| 11 | Steve Sims | G | Jr | 50% | 19.6 | 28 |
| 3 | Donnell Davis | G | Jr | 49% | 25.4 | 27 |
| 1 | DJ McFadden | G | Fr | 40% | 17.9 | 23 |
| 10 | Kevin Mack | G | Fr | 39% | 14.8 | 20 |
*All players under 20 games are left off except Kinsey due to amount of minutes.
Obviously Ayala has a large eFG%, but his minpg say he shouldn’t’ get the award for best shooter. That award needs to go to Andre Howard. Howard can shoot well, or he shoots high percentage shots.
In reality though, this team can’t shoot very well. 50% is average league wide. That means that Valley Forge can effectively shoot, but they don’t have a real dead-eye gunner from beyond the arc.
Who are players that you can really put pressure on defensively?
| ## | Player | Pos | Year | TO% | MinPG | GP |
| 11 | Steve Sims | G | Jr | 32.36% | 19.6 | 28 |
| 24 | Andre Howard | F | So | 30.65% | 16.5 | 28 |
| 1 | DJ McFadden | G | Fr | 27.20% | 17.9 | 23 |
| 10 | Kevin Mack | G | Fr | 25.71% | 14.8 | 20 |
| 3 | Donnell Davis | G | Jr | 25.39% | 25.4 | 27 |
| 4 | Lance Harris | G | So | 25.34% | 21.6 | 28 |
| 23 | Latrell Alford | G | Sr | 16.66% | 29.1 | 28 |
| 34 | Justin Kinsey | F | Sr | 16.16% | 24.4 | 16 |
| 5 | Michael Stum | F | Sr | 16.06% | 28.7 | 28 |
| 12 | Michael Ayala | G | Fr | 15.07% | 6.1 | 23 |
*All players under 20 games are left off except Kinsey due to amount of minutes.
The TO% shows how often a guy will turn the ball over per 100 possessions. Steve Sims would turn the ball over an amazing 32% of the time. That is a lot of turnovers. Howard obviously has a big issue of turning the ball over as well.
On the flip side, Michael Stum, Justin Kinsey, and Latrell Alford show why the big three are stellar players. 16% TO rate is really great. This is a key stat for rating efficient players. Shockingly, you see immediately that Valley Forge is looking for a guard that won’t turn the ball over.
Who do you need to keep off of the offensive glass?
| ## | Player | Pos | Year | ORB% | MinPG | GP |
| 24 | Andre Howard | F | So | 90.91% | 16.5 | 28 |
| 5 | Michael Stum | F | Sr | 45.56% | 28.7 | 28 |
| 23 | Latrell Alford | G | Sr | 43.21% | 29.1 | 28 |
| 4 | Lance Harris | G | So | 24.10% | 21.6 | 28 |
| 10 | Kevin Mack | G | Fr | 22.92% | 14.8 | 20 |
| 34 | Justin Kinsey | F | Sr | 21.74% | 24.4 | 16 |
| 1 | DJ McFadden | G | Fr | 20.29% | 17.9 | 23 |
| 3 | Donnell Davis | G | Jr | 19.47% | 25.4 | 27 |
| 11 | Steve Sims | G | Jr | 19.30% | 19.6 | 28 |
| 12 | Michael Ayala | G | Fr | 9.38% | 6.1 | 23 |
*All players under 20 games are left off except Kinsey due to amount of minutes.
Offensive rebounds might be the most important element for championship teams. If you can find players that will give your team an extra possession on offensive, you can change the entire game. Howard, again comes up on top of this list. 90% is a ridiculous amount for this stat. Basically that is saying he rebounds 90% of his own misses. If he could cut down on his turnovers, he could be one of the best players, not only on Valley Forge, but in the country.
Win Shares
If you think it is ridiculous and fruitless to try to find how many wins a player gives you, stop reading. This is the most controversial statistic out there right now, but I find it fascinating. Here is how I calculated win shares using Basketball Reference.
Win shares are a great way to evaluate how much value a player brings to the team. The weakness with this stat is that it only measures offense. Therefore, this list is who gives Valley Forge the most “wins” by being on the floor with their offense. If you take this player off the team, they would lose “this many” wins.
| ## | Player | Pos | Year | Win Shares |
| 5 | Michael Stum | F | Sr | 12.5 |
| 23 | Latrell Alford | G | Sr | 11.8 |
| 4 | Lance Harris | G | So | 5.6 |
| 34 | Justin Kinsey | F | Sr | 4.8 |
| 24 | Andre Howard | F | So | 4.6 |
| 3 | Donnell Davis | G | Jr | 4.6 |
| 11 | Steve Sims | G | Jr | 2.6 |
| 12 | Michael Ayala | G | Fr | 1.7 |
| 1 | DJ McFadden | G | Fr | 1.6 |
| 10 | Kevin Mack | G | Fr | 1.5 |
All in all, Michael Stum is worth 12.5 wins for Valley Forge. He is the MVP for VFCC thus far this year. Justin Kinsey, who has only played 16+ games already has racked up 4.8 wins. Alford is worth 11.8 wins which is good for second on this team. The big three for Valley Forge really are producing at a high level.
Can Lance Harris be in that group of three? I submit they need one more player to step up for Valley Forge. If Kinsey can get himself back into the swing and/or Harris can continue to improve, Valley Forge could be a scary team come national championship time, obviously being the #2 team in the country.
Justin Robinson is no longer with the team.
Makes since.
as far as I know. Stum and Alford are the life of this team. Work ethic.
I think that shows statistically with the massive difference in their win shares and everyone else’s.
YOU ARE RIGHT! ANDRE HOWARD IS THE BEST PLAYER IN THE NCCAA YO!!!!
Am I the only person that realizes that VFCC does not have a three point shooter but teams still play them man to man; I don’t know why; their only good shooter is Ayala and he barely gets in. McFadden is not on the team anymore, he is a big guard that gives other players at the guard position fits.
ty you WRONG!!! EVERY TEAM PLAYS THEM 2-3 ZONE…..AND THEY STILL WIN!!!!DEFENSE WINS! YO!
Mikey, some of the teams they play aren’t that good (i.e LBC, Berkeley, PSU teams) let’s be honest. They will have trouble in the Tournament when teams notice they don’t have any shooters and all they have are drivers. Outside of Stum, Alford and Harris, who else can provide an offensive spark.
VFCC players have been dropping like flies…Their defense is going to have to be stellar in the tournament because their offense is definitely going to take a hit…Said it for awhile now VFCC toughest opponent sometimes is themselves..Their offense becomes stagnant in the two three zone..Thats how they loss to LBC last season but made it to the National championship without alot of shooting except for Godwin and Ransom..Ransom was a big loss this season..Their three big studs are going to have to show their All American capability
are you guys forgetting about Kinsey? Harris Alford Stum and Kinsey make a pretty strong 4. I believe Valley Forge will be fine. They have a great coach in Jon Mack, and they play an aggressive style that wears opponents out. VFCC will make noise at the national tournament
check out the body of work..ty smith?
vf plays anywhere anytime!!!!
They do have a great coach in Coach Mack. East Region Coach of the year and always in the running for National Coach of the Year. Valley Forge will be a dangerous team if they have all their pieces. That seems to always be the problem with them you just never know who is on the roster. Robinson and Mcfadden were key losses
Valley Forge and LBC will be a close game tonight. Stum and Alford are going to have to be big for the Forge to win. Warfel and Keltner are going to have to play the games of their lives to pull of the upset. Key player out of tonight’s matchup
Wrong…not close at all! Blowout from start to finish.
I believe i had an accurate portrayal of how this would go at the beginning of the season
LBC had no answer for Alford and Stum. Also that defense was just swarming tonight if they can bring that to the tournament they will be dangerous.
Let’s look at this from a realistic perspective shall we…..Valley Forge basketball is a big fish in a really, really, really, really small pond but they have the attitude like they are an NBA team. Are they a pretty good team in the NCCAA? yes. Would they do anything in the NCAA if they even took the time to become a member? No. Everyone outside the NCCAA who even knows about them thinks Valley Ball is a bad joke and anyone with common sense inside the NCCAA would think the same. This all comes down to one reason: attitude. They play in a “gym” that looks like a reject from the days of the Hoosiers and it is no more fit to host a basketball game then my driveway is. yet they act like its “the Garden” and destroy any possible testimony they could have with every home game they play. Stum may have played well, but he needs to remember what the NCCAA stands for. “Only God Can Judge Me?” no stum everyone judges you, hence why there are player ratings and fans who make fun of your tattoos that make no sense. Coach Mack needs to do something about his players and fans or have the college take Christian out of the school name. Let me say congrats to Valley on their win and way to act with zero class. Hopefully you represent the your region with just a little more class at nationals.
You are going to regret this comment later. Now is the time to ask us to remove it. You can email me when you are ready to remove it.
Wow…Louis! Really? For someone to come on this website and spew this hatred, enough to say that the college should take Christian out of their name is wrong! Zero class has been exemplified by you and your comments.
Let’s allow all of our young men grow and continue to mature in their own walks and work out their own salvation without us pointing fingers. I would like to think that we can all extend a little Mercy and Grace to others, so that it will be extended to us when we need it.
Whoah I think you went a little far. I mean I am guessing you were at the game. I mean this sounds like a bitter LBC fan who lost the game but who cares about that. Anyway you need to lay off Coach Mack. Coach Mack has disciplined his players and fans before for any kind of behavior during games and after games. This coming from an indvidual who knows Valley Forge and LBC. I have been to LBC and seen things and heard things from fans that should not of been said. Come on now at times we all get caught up in the moment. Lets not just point the finger at Valley Forge. The bottom line is that yes at times Valley Forge has not shown class, but there has been a lot of teams in the NCCAA along with fans (LBC included that have not shown that class either). I mean did you see the fan that pushed Stum back onto the court last night. Two wrongs do not make it right. So yeah do not be so quick to judge
DO NOT NEED RANSOM,#1,OR #34 OR robinson
patriots all they do is win ,win win and win…….sorry louie!
GO PATRIOTS YOUR # 1 SEED!!!!!