It’s that time again. Who’s on the bubble and who is not? What is the bubble and how in the world can you get off the bubble. All we are hoping to do with this post is to take the power ratings and show you what the Bubble teams look like and where they are at in regards to each other.
1. This list is not taking into account the rules of the regional tournaments.
2. This list is based completely on the power ratings.
3. Central Bible is an auto bid due to being the host school and is not reflected in this list.
4. The tournament seeding is not based on the rules of first round match ups. That will have to be factored in later.
Seeding according to power ratings:
| Team | Region | Rating | NCCAA SOS | O ADJ | D ADJ | Luck | Poss. | |
| 1 | Grace Bible College | MW | 0.8349 | 0.4425 | 74.72 | 48.86 | -0.0107 | 70 |
| 2 | Valley Forge Christian College | E | 0.8152 | 0.4538 | 74.71 | 49.41 | -0.0195 | 72 |
| 3 | Clearwater Christian College | S | 0.7989 | 0.3803 | 67.48 | 54.72 | -0.1674 | 79 |
| 4 | Kuyper College | MW | 0.7906 | 0.3759 | 66.72 | 55.56 | -0.0164 | 61 |
| 5 | Ohio Christian University | ME | 0.7603 | 0.3173 | 60.17 | 60.86 | -0.1534 | 78 |
| 6 | North Central University | NC | 0.7574 | 0.3797 | 65.96 | 57.14 | -0.0850 | 76 |
| 7 | Hillsdale Free Will Baptist | SW | 0.7499 | 0.3784 | 65.65 | 57.54 | 0.0674 | 82 |
| 8 | Lancaster Bible College | E | 0.7454 | 0.3360 | 61.50 | 60.67 | 0.1453 | 58 |
| 9 | Florida Christian College | S | 0.7036 | 0.3844 | 65.23 | 58.69 | -0.1672 | 75 |
| 10 | Manhattan Christian College | C | 0.6926 | 0.3909 | 65.65 | 58.47 | -0.1489 | 74 |
| 11 | Multnomah University | W | 0.6346 | 0.3879 | 64.41 | 60.23 | -0.0099 | 85 |
| 12 | Central Bible College | C | 0.5395 | 0.4369 | 67.30 | 58.10 | -0.0421 | 77 |
The At-Large Teams if the season ended today:
| Team | Region | Rating | NCCAA SOS | O ADJ | D ADJ | Luck | Poss. | |
| 1 | Kuyper College | MW | 0.7906 | 0.3759 | 66.72 | 55.56 | -0.0164 | 61 |
| 2 | Lancaster Bible College | E | 0.7454 | 0.3360 | 61.50 | 60.67 | 0.1453 | 58 |
| 3 | Florida Christian College | S | 0.7036 | 0.3844 | 65.23 | 58.69 | -0.1672 | 75 |
Teams on the Bubble:
| 4 | Maranatha Baptist Bible College | MW | 0.6951 | 0.4113 | 66.21 | 56.72 | -0.2789 | 69 |
| 5 | Grace University | C | 0.6915 | 0.3661 | 63.27 | 60.52 | -0.0026 | 76 |
| 6 | Crown College (TN) | ME | 0.6787 | 0.2638 | 53.11 | 68.79 | -0.0437 | 72 |
| 7 | Northland International University | MW | 0.6654 | 0.3857 | 64.70 | 59.64 | -0.0201 | 69 |
| 8 | Trinity Bible College | NC | 0.6329 | 0.3518 | 60.97 | 63.36 | -0.0426 | 76 |
| 9 | Dallas Christian College | SW | 0.6283 | 0.4240 | 67.67 | 57.23 | 0.0674 | 79 |
What do you think Maranatha would have to do to get in? They have a big out of region game against Faith tonight, then they have Northland next week and have Lincoln later this month. I would think they would need to win out in NCCAA play. On top of that, they would need to knock off Kuyper/Grace in the semifinals and show very well in the finals. It has been a rough season for MBBC so far (2-15) but they have been in a lot of games. Do you think they could go to nationals by making it to the MW regional final (by going through Kuyper/Grace) or do you think they would have to pull a stunner and somehow win the region?
I don’t really understand why I always get the “don’t hate” regardless of what I say. All I was doing was asking a question. I think anyone that knows my posts knows I am a Maranatha fan. And as much as I support my own school (who wouldn’t) I was surprised to see them as the top team “on the bubble” which is why I asked what people thought they needed to do to get in. It’s my own team and I think its a long shot. How is that hating? Also, I agree with MW Observer that MBBC has to be on the verge of being contenders. Also, this is why I said for them to win the region would be a “stunner.” Can the people (or person I’m pretty sure) who ALWAYS clicks “don’t hate” please explain your rationale for that? Thanks!
The MW is strong this year, like most years. Maranatha has to do pretty much exactly what you said win their big nccaa 2 games and make some noise by knocking off Kuyper/Grace. Crazier things have happened. If you can play your best basketball at the end of the year you never know. NCU (the school i attended) has had many years where they have looked pretty sorry but have been able to put together a good 2nd half of the year.
p.s. I did not click the “hate” button.
This question will probably sound cutting, but I don’t mean it to.
What makes Maranatha a contender? They’ve beat 2 bad teams this year…and lost every other game.
They need to beat either kuyper or grace bible and not lose to any other team.
Lancaster and Fl dont deserve to be there.
I understand. This year is interesting because you have to have 12 teams and there is not a convincing argument for any team after Kuyper for an at-large-bid.
Cole,
Do you think that the fact that ” there is not a convincing argument for any team after Kuyper for an at-large-bid” is the reason MBBC could be in contention if they win out in the NCCAA and make it to the MW Regional championship? I’m sure I will get some “don’t hate” for this but once again, I’m just asking a question because I really thought MBBC, after the season they have had, would be on the outside looking in.
I think you nailed it.
I think only Grace and Kuyper have a legitimate shot to make it in. If I understand the at-large selection rules correctly, Kuyper has all but secured their trip to the national tournament. Kuyper will enter the MW region as the 1 seed, which means if they lose they will be the automatic candidate for the at-large. If they win the MWR tournament, it will most likely go through Grace Bible in the title game, and I have a hard time believing Grace will get passed up for an at large. Any other team, whether it be NIU, Maranatha or even Moody can’t get the at large. They will have to win out. Had Grace Bible been the 1 seed, then the door would be open for more teams, but I don’t see Grace losing the region, let alone losing any time before the title game. I hope that all makes sense.
MW region chances of getting 3+ teams in this year? Grace, Kuyper, NIU all seem to be pretty reasonable candidates in a season with, as cole said, there aren’t a ton of teams with convincing arguments.
(side note, I get that Grace and Kuyper are more than just “reasonable”, I meant them as a whole all getting in)
I could be mistaken but I think the loser of NIU MBBC game this coming Tuesday will pretty much lose any shot at an large. It is always a good game between those teams because of the rivalry, but this game would hold more significance because don’t you have to be at least the 4 seed to be eligible for an at large? And Cameron is correct, you cannot send more than 2 teams from one region. Kuyper and Grace seem to be the likely favorites with Grace winning and Kuyper getting the at-large (they will be the 1 seed but most people still think Grace will win). I think any other team in the MW region will have to win the region to get in, which will be a daunting task. I do think I remember seeing Kuyper lost to Great Lakes and squeaked out a thriller against MBBC, so they definitely seem beatable if you catch them on the right night. Gotta love the MW Region!
I may be wrong on this, but my understanding is that there can’t be 3 teams from one region. Even if Central Bible wins the central and opens up another at-large, it looks like Maranatha’s chances of getting in rest almost entirely on their ability to beat GBC or Kuyper. I would say the predicted teams in above are very likely to all be correct, maybe with slightly different seeding, unless someone pulls off a significant upset in their regional tournament. That said, there’s plenty of games left, and this is college basketball we’re talking about here!
From what I understand of the rules the only region that could theoretically have 3 teams is the Central Region, because Central Bible College doesn’t count as the Regions one At-Large bid because it is the host school.
MBBC has a good chance against Kuyper. They lost by 3 to them without their top 3 guards.. Will be a different game if they meet up in the regionals
Isn’t it a little sad that the no.1 team on the bubble is 3-3 in NCCAA play and has a 3-16 record and that qualifies them to be the top bubble team. Even if they do beat NIU and a bad Lincoln team…Is the NCCAA having a down year or something for men’s basketball??? I know, I know, MBBC plays in a tough conference………but seriously
Yes, it is sad. And yes, the NCCAA is having a bad year in a sense. It’s more like there are the top teams and then a decent gap, then “everyone else.” Even Kuyper, as good as they have been, lost to Great Lakes and narrowly escaped 3-16 MBBC. So, it is hard to really predict anything. Most likely, it will be the automatic qualifiers that make the most noise and the “everyone else” teams will probably have less affect than normal on the tournament, but we’ll see
What are the chances of The Crown College getting an at-large bid?
I was wondering the same…What would it take for The Crown College to get an at-large bid?
small but there is a chance. they need a signature win like beating ohio.
Just wondering in your guys opinion what does Grace University have to do to get an at large? Their only two nccaa losses are to Manhattan twice and both games we single possession games with less the 2 minutes to go. Otherwise Grace University has taken care of business.
If Kuyper were to win at grace as well, does that count as an upset?!?!
Twice in one season….no move over grace there’s a new number one!!!!!
2 Superbowls.
http://mobile.mlive.com/advgrapids/pm_29288/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=GCHfDlOT
Just to make it clear Kuyper has beaten Grace twice, no taking away from that. Two unbelievable wins, but they also lost to GREAT LAKES. That being said, Kuyper has not played a single team outside the Midwest region, which is extremely weak after Grace and Kuyper. Grace has played anyone, anywhere. Two wins over the #1 team is impressive, but five wins against the #2, #4, #5, and #7 gives Grace more quality wins, and NO BAD LOSSEs (ex: Great Lakes).
What a game between natha and NIU. Natha came out blazin. Packed crowd was just electric. Halftime show was great. Natha was never behind. ya had to be there to be able to explain it.
What about Trinity Bible College? They hung with Valley Forge and Central Bible til the end. One bad game against NCU seems to be the reason they don’t get any recognition.