Is it too early to discuss basketball? Of course not. I want to go back and look at the 2010-2011 season, and take a look at the trends, good teams, and observations for the 2011-2012 season.
2010-2011 was marked by one team, Grace Bible College. GBC continued to put the boot down on the neck of the rest of the NCCAA DII. I said this on a podcast earlier this year, and I will say it again, “When GBC finally losses an NCCAA DII game, everyone should party. Including GBC.” The run that the Tigers are on is incredible, and when it finally comes to an end, everyone should celebrate what an amazing feat that is.
How dominate was GBC? This could probably be its own post, but take a look at these numbers:
- Grace Bible College finished with a power rating of .8619 that is .1666 better than the second place team (Dallas Christian College). That is unbelievable. For example, the average margin of separation between a team ranked right next to each other is .0657. In other words, they are a “level” better than anyone else.
- Grace Bible played the hardest schedule in the NCCAA DII last year, and didn’t lose a game.
- The Tiger’s offense was spectacular last year. Their PTS+ (Points above league average) is +23. If “0” is the average for the NCCAA DII, GBC was +23 points better than the average team on offense. That is ridiculous.
- GBC losses All-World Allen Durham, and the impact that his loss will have on the team is not quantifiable, but according to the player ratings, Allen Durham was involved in 74.66% of the team’s production.
Another story, and one that was almost the main story of the season, was the rise of Dallas Christian College. They didn’t make it to the national championship, but that is because the seeding committee robbed the rest of the world, and seeded Dallas on the same side of the bracket as Grace Bible College. Dallas was fantastic last year and here is why:
- Dallas Christian College played the second hardest NCCAA DII schedule of anyone last year.
- Dallas had the second best offense in the nation last year at a +14 PTS+. What was keeping them back? Dallas needed to tighten up the defense. Dallas was a +11 PTSA+ (Points Against above the average. You want a negative number in this stat.)
- Anthony Tubbs and Isaac Gonzales combined for 56% of their team’s performance. These two stars were amazing at the national tournament as well.
One of the big topics for the 2010-2011 season was how good was Florida Christian College? Could they be a break out team for this year? We will have a 2011-2012 preseason post later, but it looks good for Florida Christian College. Florida Christian College was, according to the “Luck” stat (Pythagorean winning percentage vs. actual winning percentage) FCC was the unluckiest team in the nation last year.
Why did Florida Christian make the jump from average team in the south region to possible breakout team in 2011-2012? This is actually the easiest answer of all questions last year. Florida Christian decided to start defending. Florida Christian had a PTSA+ or -5. That is 5 points below the average, and that is a great sign for FCC. If they can become more efficient on offense (33.36 O Adjusted), and raise that up to the 40-50 range, then Florida will be in the national tournament.
We will have more on basketball as the season approached, but I can’t help but talk about what might be the best basketball season in years, this year.